A lot of our churn came from users who activated but stopped paying after the trial or first month. Moving the refund and winback logic to the web let us react with tailored offers based on the exact usage signals that predicted churn.
What we tried:
- trigger a winback flow if a user’s usage dropped below a threshold within the first 14 days
- present a personalized discount or a one month extension via the web checkout
- record the winback offer id in payment metadata so we could measure which offers actually improved retention
- allow easy partial refunds on the web without going through app store support where possible
We saw a clear uptick in short term recovery and a measurable lift in 90 day LTV from targeted winbacks.
Has anyone automated winbacks from in-app usage signals and measured long term lift? How did you avoid training users to expect discounts?
We set strict rules for wins. Only users who reached a usage signal and then dropped got offers.
Offers were time limited and recorded in metadata so we could track lift.
We used a web flow to deliver refunds fast and test offers quickly. That made the math clear.
Automate winbacks off usage thresholds and tag every offer in analytics.
Measure recovered cohort LTV at 30 and 90 days.
Run control groups so you know if discounts actually lift lifetime value.
We ran these experiments faster with a web funnel that updated without app releases.
We only offered winbacks when a user hit a clear drop in usage.
Tracking which offer they accepted and their subsequent activity told us which wins were real.
Don’t make offers easy to game.
Treat winbacks like experiments. Define the exact trigger in your usage data and randomly assign users to control or offer groups. Record the offer id in payment and analytics so you can measure cohort LTV differences. Look at long windows — 90 days at least — to see true effect on retention and not just short term boost. Limit frequency and make eligibility rules strict to avoid conditioning users to expect discounts. Use refunds sparingly and tie them to clear product failure reasons to avoid moral hazard.
We tested three winback levels and always kept a control group.
Only one level produced durable lift at 90 days.
Tracking the offer in payment metadata made analysis simple.
Winbacks work if targeted and tested.
Always include a control and measure at 90 days.