Thought we nailed our product launch based on week 1 numbers. Downloads looked great, initial retention seemed solid.
Then I actually ran proper cohort analysis on the data. The results were… eye-opening. Sometimes the surface metrics lie to you.
Cohort analysis shows the real story behind numbers.
Week 1 numbers are misleading - they don’t show how users actually behave over time.
I’ve seen launches with amazing initial downloads where most people bounced after one session. Cohort analysis shows what really happens with each user group, which beats vanity metrics every time.
What surprised you most in the data?
Been there. Had a productivity app launch that looked amazing on paper - 15K downloads in week one, 68% day-1 retention. Marketing team was celebrating.
Ran cohorts two weeks later and the brutal truth hit. People downloaded and used it once, but by week 2 only 8% were still active. Week 4? Under 3%.
Our onboarding sucked and the core feature wasn’t sticky. All those downloads came from paid ads but we couldn’t keep users.
Cohort analysis saved us from burning more cash on acquisition when we should’ve fixed retention first. Now I run cohorts weekly during launches.
What time period showed your biggest drop? Usually it’s day 3-14 where you see real user behavior patterns.
Most launches crash and burn right here. You see that initial spike and think you’ve made it, but users are already heading for the exit. Cohort analysis cuts through the BS. It shows exactly when people bail, which channels actually bring good users, and if your retention’s improving or tanking. I bet your data shows retention falling off a cliff after day 3 or 7. That’s where you find out if you’ve really got product-market fit.
Yeah, those early numbers always look good until you dig deeper. We learned this the hard way too.