What product usage metrics actually predict long-term retention?

Been tracking everything from session length to feature adoption but half my users still churn after month 3.

Starting to think I’m looking at vanity metrics instead of what actually matters for keeping people around long-term.

Time to first value beats session length every time. Also track how many people actually use your main feature in week 2.

Check your onboarding completion rates and how fast users hit their first win.

Users who do key actions in their first 7 days stick around way longer. It’s not about feature usage - they need to solve their real problem at least once.

Track their app opens in week 2. That tells you if they’ll still be active after 3 months.

Skip the fancy metrics. Track one thing: how many times users complete your main workflow in their first month. Productivity app? Count finished tasks. Social app? Posts or messages sent. Users who hit your core loop 10+ times in month one almost never churn. Everything else is noise. Most apps die because users never build the habit, not because of missing features or bad UI.

Weekly active users who hit your paywall predict retention best.

Depth beats breadth every time. Users who try 3+ features in week one stick around way longer than those who hammer just one feature.

Watch for return visits within 72 hours of signup. That early comeback is a strong signal they’ll make it past month 6.

But here’s the real killer metric: how often they do your core action in the first 14 days. Note app? 5+ notes created. Fitness app? 3+ workouts logged. Find that magic number for your product.