Which mobile app user engagement metrics actually predict retention?

Been tracking everything from session length to feature usage but struggling to see what actually matters for keeping users around long term.

Anyone found specific engagement patterns that reliably predict who stays vs who churns?

Feature depth beats breadth every time.

I’ve run campaigns for three different apps - same pattern every time. Users who go deep on one main feature in week one? They stick around. Users jumping between everything? Gone by month two.

Timing matters for push notifications too. Users who enable them after 2-3 days of actual use have way better retention than the ones who say yes right away. They’ve already seen the value.

Here’s something weird I noticed - any user who customizes anything (profile, settings, doesn’t matter what) has 40% better 30-day retention. Tiny action, but it shows they’re invested.

Day 3 comeback rate tells you everything you need.

Time between sessions beats total usage time every time.

Users who return within 24 hours of their first session? They stick around. I also track people who hit the main feature in their first three opens - they get it fast.

Push notification response rates are solid too. Engaged users actually want those updates.

Profile completion rate is solid. People who actually fill out their profiles stick around way longer than those who don’t.

First week activity beats everything else. If someone opens your app 4 or more days in week one, they’ll probably stick around. Session length and fancy features mean nothing without the habit first. Second best signal? Getting users to complete your main action twice. Hit that core goal twice and they’re usually hooked. The rest is just fluff to make dashboards look pretty.