Been tracking retention metrics and noticed some interesting patterns emerging before users actually churn.
The early signals are pretty subtle but they’re definitely there. Wondering what retention shifts others have spotted that actually predict churn risk accurately.
Session frequency drops are usually the first thing I catch. Users go from daily opens to every other day, then weekly before they disappear completely.
Also watch for feature abandonment patterns. On a productivity app I worked on, users who stopped using the core workflow feature within their first week had 3x higher churn rates.
The tricky one is engagement quality degradation. Users still open the app but spend way less time per session. They’re basically checking out mentally before they actually delete.
Support ticket volume tells the real story.
Users who submit multiple tickets about the same issue or start asking basic questions are likely to churn.
Changes in payment behavior are another signal. When users downgrade plans or cancel auto-renewal but remain on free versions, they are just delaying the inevitable.
The biggest predictor is notification interaction rates. If users stop responding to push notifications, they have mentally checked out. You have about two weeks before they uninstall.
Login streaks breaking is my biggest red flag signal.
We usually see people stop clicking our in-app promotions about two weeks before they churn.
Time spent on onboarding screens usually reveals churn risk pretty early.
Users who rush through setup without completing their profile or skip tutorial steps tend to leave within the first month. They never really commit to using the app properly.
Another pattern I see is when users stop sharing or inviting friends if your app has social features. That social disconnect happens weeks before they actually uninstall.