Been digging into our retention data lately and wondering what patterns actually signal PMF versus just decent onboarding.
Obvious stuff like D30 retention makes sense, but curious what subtle indicators you’ve found that predicted real traction before it became obvious in the numbers.
Watch for users creating content or data in week 2.
Look for users who return after 2-3 weeks without any nudging from you - no push notifications or emails. Those organic comebacks are gold because it means people genuinely miss your app. Don’t ignore session depth either. If retention’s flat but users are spending more time each visit, that’s usually a leading indicator before retention actually improves.
Look for users who aren’t daily but actually use your app more over time. Someone hits it twice in week one, then four times in week three - that’s growth even without daily habits.
Watch for feature adoption lag. When people start using secondary features 2-3 weeks after install without any prompting, the core value just clicked and they’re exploring. I’ve seen this right before retention spikes.
Here’s what surprised me: support tickets shifting from “how do I” questions to feature requests. Users complaining about missing features beats users asking how basic stuff works every time.
Look for cohort curves that flatten out instead of just dropping off. Most apps lose users steadily, but when you’ve got PMF the retention curve levels off around week 3-4. Also keep an eye on users who don’t use it daily but keep coming back. That choppy but consistent usage usually happens right before you see hockey stick growth.
When users share your app without any incentives - that’s gold. They’re telling friends because they genuinely love it, not because you’re bribing them with rewards.