Been running tests for months now and starting to wonder if I’m actually following scientific method or just looking for data that confirms what I already believe.
How do you guys structure your experiments to avoid confirmation bias?
I run two conflicting variants whenever I can. Like testing ‘free trial’ against ‘paid upfront’ messaging simultaneously.
This forces me to accept one will lose, so I can’t get attached to either. Takes the emotion out of it and keeps me focused on what actually converts.
I always set kill switches before launching any test. CTR drops below 2% or CPA hits $50? I pull the plug, even if I really want it to work.
I’ve started testing things I’m actually skeptical about. Way more valuable than just confirming what I already think will happen.
The real moment of truth is when results surprise you. Do you dig into why, or do you rationalize it away? I’ve definitely been guilty of explaining away bad data more times than I’d like to admit.
Focus on learning from tests not just your beliefs
Stay open to unexpected results. Track everything and question your assumptions regularly.
Write down your hypothesis before testing starts. What do you expect to happen and why? Then figure out what would prove you wrong. Can’t think of results that’d change your mind? You’re not testing - you’re just hunting for data to back up what you already decided. Real testing means you’ve got to be ready to kill features or campaigns that bomb, even when you loved the idea.