Predicting customer behavior shifts during economic uncertainty

Been tracking our retention metrics and subscription downgrades lately. Users are definitely changing how they spend but the patterns aren’t what I expected.

Anyone else seeing weird shifts in their cohort data? Trying to figure out if this is temporary or if we need to adjust our entire growth strategy.

We started seeing people stick around longer but spend less per transaction about 3 months ago.

The interesting part is that our lowest tier actually grew while mid tier dropped. People seem to be downgrading but not leaving completely.

I think they want to keep the service but just pay less right now. Might be worth testing a cheaper entry option if you haven’t already.

Examine your weekly active usage along with revenue data. If usage is steady but revenue drops, you could be in a solid position long term. I’ve noticed users often switch to annual plans during tough times to save. What seems like downgrades may actually be commitments for longer durations. Prioritize engagement metrics over revenue for now. Active users are likely to upgrade when the situation improves.

I’m seeing the opposite pattern with one app - retention actually improved when we expected it to tank. Users cut other subscriptions but kept ours because it saves them money on food delivery.

The key was splitting cohorts by acquisition channel. Paid social users churned faster but organic referrals stayed sticky. Different user types react completely differently to economic pressure.

Try segmenting by how users found you first. That showed us which channels to double down on and which ones to pause until things stabilize.

Same here. Freemium users convert way slower now though.

Our ads are getting more clicks but fewer conversions. People browse more when money is tight but buy less.