Been tracking retention metrics for months now and wondering how much weight I should put on these numbers when evaluating PMF.
Seeing decent Day 1 retention but it drops off pretty hard after week 2. Does this pattern actually indicate weak product-market fit or are there other factors I should consider?
Sharp drops after week 2 could mean users hit your paywall or realized the app doesn’t solve their actual problem.
I’d look at what happens right before people leave. Are they completing key actions or just browsing without engaging?
If paying users stick around longer than free ones, your retention might actually be fine for the people who matter.
The drop after week 2 is common. Focus on retention beyond that point.
If you see a high drop by day 30, that signals a product-market fit issue. But if 10-15% keep using the app regularly, it may indicate an onboarding problem.
Examine your loyal users. Are they finding value? Do they return without reminders? This group gives better insights on product fit than the majority who download and leave.
Week 2 dropoff might be normal depending on your category. Check if competitors have similar patterns before assuming it’s a PMF problem.
That week 2 drop usually means onboarding is weak