Which ux metrics actually predict long-term retention and satisfaction?

Been tracking session duration, bounce rates, feature adoption - the usual stuff.

But I’m wondering which UX metrics actually correlate with users sticking around long-term and being happy with the product.

What have you found that’s predictive?

Time to first value beats other metrics hands down. We had a finance app where users who finished their first budget in 48 hours? 3x better retention at 90 days.

Repeat usage is huge. If someone came back and hit the core feature 3+ times in their first week, they basically never churned.

Don’t get fooled by session length though. Short sessions often mean people found what they wanted quickly - that’s a win, not a problem.

Engagement depth beats frequency every time. If users hit 3 or more core features in week one, they are 4 times more likely to stick around after 6 months compared to users who just use one feature over and over. Don’t ignore support tickets either. Users who reach out and get quick fixes become your most loyal customers. They are already invested. One more thing: check where your users come from. Organic users who finish onboarding convert 60% better long-term than paid traffic.

Return visits without prompts. That tells you everything.

Day 7 usage patterns work well for us. Users who open the app at least twice that week usually stick around past month 3.

Feature completion rates beat session time or page views every time. Users who finish what your app’s built for actually get the value.

I track first meaningful task completion within 24 hours. Those users convert way better and stick around for months.

Watch for users returning on day 3-4 without notifications. That’s your signal they found something worth coming back to.